The Great Upload Event

[jordansparks]

The Great Upload Event is the name that I've given to what I think is the most likely scenario for revival. At the current rate of progress on Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) and computing improvements, we would probably be able to upload the first human in about 50 years, or 2075. Subsequent uploads would generally be delayed by about 20 years while we waited for the cost to come down and the quality to go up. During that 20 years, everyone would have certainty that WBE would work. It would dramatically shape how people prioritize everything in their lives. Brain preservation rates would obviously skyrocket. Investments in medical technology would tank because there would be no future at all in medicine with everyone switching to WBE. Investments in space technology would boom because WBEs could live in space more easily without all the health problems that humans have to deal with. Because living in space would be possible, WBEs could also thrive there economically by mining, etc. Remember that the level of technology in this future scenario would not be anything close to nanotechnology. We would be slightly further along the path of that revolution, but there would still be nothing resembling nanobots. Full nanotech might take another 70+ years of additional development. Also notice that there is no such thing as a singularity because exponential growth never results in a vertical asymptote. This scenario would have smooth exponential growth both before and after the Great Upload Event.

[Wesxdz]

Investments in space technology would boom because WBEs could live in space more easily without all the health problems that humans have to deal with. Because living in space would be possible, WBEs could also thrive there economically by mining,

Better get a head start on this so to speak!

[jordansparks]

Well, yes. If you think the scenario of a low tech upload event is likely, then that also means we are looking at a low tech movement into space soon after that. This would probably look like a fairly large and rapid migration to the moon, Earth orbit, Mars, solar orbit, asteroid belt, etc. When electricity is your main requirement for survival instead of food, water, and air, everything becomes so much easier. The main requirements besides electricity would be thick external shielding and regular repair services, but not much more. A low tech space migration would be really cool because most sci-fi portrays almost everything as low tech, other than small amounts of random technobabble like hyperdrive. Where they all get it wrong, of course, is that it would be WBEs, not biological humans. But still, many of the stories adapt well. And yes, the timeline is short enough that planning right now for your own space migration is perfectly reasonable. If you're currently young, you might get to go straight from biological to upload, with no annoying down time interval.