Kurzweil uploads

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jordansparks
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Kurzweil uploads

Post by jordansparks »

Kurzweil's latest book just came out. I'm not going to discuss his AI predictions because we each have our own constantly evolving opinions about the trajectory of AI. But what caught my attention was the idea of using nanobots in the brain capillaries to perform a mind upload. I've always said that nanobots would be useless in reviving cryonics patients, and I still feel that way. But nanobots in the blood would be quite a different beast. These nanobots would not have arms that manipulate or repair molecules inside cells. They would instead be restricted to the capillaries. Any probe appendages would not be used for repair but would instead be used to sense and monitor the electrical flow of brain activity. That's very different and it's much easier -- still not happening in 20 years, but much much easier.

My previous upload scenarios generally involved slicing and dicing the brain in to many millions of pieces which then get scanned with electron microscopes. But I now think nanobots in the brain capillaries is an equally likely scenario, so I will be working that into my https://oregoncryo.com/futureTechnology.html page. I completely disagree with Kurzweil's timeframe of 20 years, of course. 50 years for the first extremely crude capillary nanobots that would be widely available to the public is more more realistic, with 90 years until they would be capable of a full mind upload. In other words, I predict it will be possible at about the same time as the scanning approach. But there are some huge advantages to the nanobot approach. First of all, we would get that 40 year window where we would be connected directly to the cloud without being able to upload. This would make it a gradually improving iterative process. This would obviously help the public understand that uploading would eventually be possible. It would also have many fantastic short term benefits separate from uploading, which means that vast resources would be poured into that technology. Because of the gradual nature of the improvements, nanobots feels a bit more likely than scanning.

I'm on board with the nanobot scenario now, but not the kind that repair anything. I think most nanobots will be passive monitors or will perform crude and simple tasks. They will obviously start in the gut instead of the capillaries. 25 years to the first widely available gut robots is not unrealistic. Unfortunately, my estimate of 50 years to the first capillary robots means I will completely miss the boat. But maybe it could still be fun if someone comes up with a robot that lives in my gut and runs on sugar or something cool like that. My guess is that the form factor for that would look like a 6" worm. Thank goodness I have a weak gag reflex and would be able to swallow one of those every few weeks.
PCmorphy72
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Joined: Sun May 26, 2019 12:39 pm

Re: Kurzweil uploads

Post by PCmorphy72 »

I would add a 30 June 2044 event on my Google calendar in order to properly continue this discussion and verify if Kurzweil was too optimistic or not. If you will still be so determined perhaps your forum will survive to the Google accounts as we know today, but the will of the people involved in tecnological progress is erratic when there is not a wide interest in the community, that's why surgeons and sonographers still prefer their hands to the robots (and why gastroenterologists exist to prefer "direct ways" to monitor our guts, in order to win in an easy way against our abdominal muscolar resistance: after all they would deal with a brain as it was a gut).
I remember when I saw the Star Trek 1979 movie in the eighties I was sure that in 2000 medical monitoring would have been something similar, but... Making shapshots (scans) is a more confortable way of development than supplying intelligence (artificial or not) to robots (nano or not), when the intelligence is not used only for stupid demonstrations: that's true since the eighties. More intelligence has certainly been used for nuclear fusion or quantum electronics. Miniaturization, until now, has served the community mainly for calculation purposes, not for medical monitoring. By the way, did Kurzweil predict also visual monitoring by the nanobots, apart "the electrical flow of brain activity"?
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